Will Australia find economic opportunities in the shift to "friendshoring" — trading with trusted partners? (ABC News: Australian Rail Association)
History doesn't repeat, it rhymes.
In April last year, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivered a landmark speech about our economy.
It was the speech in which he made a case for his "Future Made in Australia" plan and explained his ambition to turn Australia into a renewable energy superpower.
"This decade marks a fundamental shift in the way nations are structuring their economies," he said.
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"Nations are drawing an explicit link between economic security and national security. The so-called 'Washington consensus' has fractured and Washington itself is pursuing a new direction.
"All these countries are investing in their industrial base, their manufacturing capability and their economic sovereignty.
"This is not old-fashioned protectionism or isolationism — it is the new competition," he said.
It was a notable speech because of what it signified.
It was further evidence that the world was changing rapidly. The old playbook was disintegrating. Countries were consciously trying to re-shape their economies and re-imagine their futures, and Australia was joining them.
And it was happening in a febrile geopolitical environment in which democracy was in retreat and populism and authoritarianism were on the rise globally, and millions of people were losing faith in politics-as-usual and 21st-century globalisation.
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When Mr Albanese gave that speech, I pointed out some historical parallels with a lecture John Maynard Keynes had given in Dublin in April 1933 titled National Self-Sufficiency.
I thought the parallels were fascinating.
When Keynes delivered that lecture, the Great Depression was in full swing and Europeans were losing faith in laissez-faire capitalism and the remnants of 19th-century globalisation.
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Photo shows albanese clean energy
Adolf Hitler had been appointed chancellor of Germany four months earlier, Benito Mussolini had been in power for a decade in Italy, and Joseph Stalin had long-ago cemented his grip on Russia.
An increasing number of countries were leaning towards nationalism, economic self-sufficiency, and economic experimentation.
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Keynes said no-one knew where things were headed but countries had a right to restructure their economies to fit their new ambitions and rapidly changing situations.
"We are, all of us, I expect, about to make many mistakes. No-one can tell which of the new systems will prove itself best," he said.
"But the point of my present discussion is this. We each have our own fancy. Not believing that we are saved already, we each would like to have a try at working out our own salvation."
Why should anyone care about a lecture from an economist in 1933? Anybody who reads history can identify patterns, and this one appeared obvious.
The rising isolation of an island nation
Fast forward to today.
Last week, economists and researchers at UNSW and the e61 think tank released a report that made observations about today's situation that, once again, brought that 1933 lecture to mind.
The report was titled: The rising isolation of an island nation: Five economic themes that will dominate the next parliament.
It warned the global trend towards populism in recent years, the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States, and the breakdown of the global trading system would be very challenging for Australia.
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"The rules-based system is giving way to a new era of power-based transactional negotiations, more like an arm wrestle among 'strongmen' leaders,"
it said.
"Many nations are abandoning open trade and climate action. Others will pursue one or both, but outside any multilateral, rules-based structure.
"Many are pursuing industrial policy in the name of resilience, self-sufficiency or sovereign capability.
"This is not a temporary blip. A rules-based order relies on credible long-term commitment. The ripple effects of recent, dramatic US policy changes are far-reaching and cannot be easily reversed. There is no return to normal.
"The risk to Australia is stark," it said.
The report's authors made it clear that, when it came to climate change, they thought the re-election of Mr Trump had changed the game dramatically, given his hostility towards climate action and international agreements.
They said climate change remained an urgent challenge, but Australia's plan to become a green energy superpower now faced "hurdles".
"It relies on foreign demand for green products, including energy-intensive value-added goods produced in Australia," it said.
"With global commitment to emissions reduction now less clear, and economies pursuing tariffs, industrial policy and on-shoring, Australia's ability to export low-cost renewable power is in question.
"Australia must respond to this new dynamic. While many nations have responded by protecting and building up their domestic manufacturing capabilities, Australia should take a different approach," it said.
The report said Australia could find economic opportunities in the shift to "friendshoring" — trading with trusted partners — as countries realigned their trading and geopolitical relationships in response to the chaos.
It warned "protectionist and industrial policies" in Australia would not build the agility we need in an increasingly unpredictable world.
"Policymakers should look to build greater economic flexibility to rapidly respond to new opportunities," it said.
"As the Treasury Secretary highlighted recently, trade-exposed firms need to be flexible in switching their imports and exports to other countries as needed."
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Coincidently, in November, the director of the Superpower Institute, Ross Garnaut, also warned that Mr Trump's re-election was a blow to Australia on climate and trade.
But recently, he said the business and climate case for renewables still left Australia in the box seat to capitalise, even though political events were making things more difficult.
"The election of Trump doesn't change the physics [of climate change] one bit," Professor Garnaut said last month.
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"Atmospheric physics doesn't care who wins American elections or what commentators are saying on Fox News.
"China sees a geopolitical opportunity in America's withdrawal from Paris. It's already actively promoting its own decarbonisation … It will use its industrial strength to enhance cooperation with other countries wanting to move to net zero.
"But if the US developments become instrumental in changing political direction in the rest of the world, then that will have a big negative effect on the world's action on climate change," he said.
However, always the optimist, Professor Garnaut said renewable energy had a life of its own these days because it's now the cheapest form of energy, so it will continue to drive many business decisions.
"If we get it right, we've got the lowest cost renewable energy of any large country," he said of Australia's plans.
"And that could be the basis of strong competitiveness in a wide range of industries that use a lot of energy. Most of these — and the jobs in them — are based in rural and provincial Australia.
"In fact, the economic growth in the next half century in Australia will be disproportionately in rural and provincial areas because that's where the zero-carbon industrial growth will be," he said.
The geopolitics are extremely fluid. And we are all, one suspects, about to make many mistakes.