Robert Dwyer has claimed the seat of Port Macquarie for the Liberals. (ABC Mid North Coast: Wiriyati Sati)
In short:
When the state Liberals Member for Port Macquarie Leslie Williams retired mid-term the party was ready with candidate Robert Dwyer, who has claimed victory.
The by-election caught the Nationals off guard and their candidate, Sean Gleeson, says he needed more time to campaign.
What's next?
Mr Gleeson has promised to continue getting to know the electorate and may contest the seat again.
The Liberal Party has declared victory in the by-election for the New South Wales seat of Port Macquarie.
The party chose ex-services club general manager Robert Dwyer as its candidate to replace retiring Liberal MP Leslie Williams, who left the National Party for the Liberals in 2020.
The Nationals also ran a candidate in Saturday's by-election and have conceded defeat.
Mr Dwyer thanked volunteers and party leaders for their support.
"I am absolutely ecstatic and extremely privileged to be in this position," he said.
"We had an absolute champion in Leslie Williams for so many years and they are massive shoes to fill, but I'm confident, with the support of the Liberal Party, that I'll be able to commit to doing a great job for the electorate."
Outgoing Liberal MP Leslie Williams supported Robert Dwyer at polling booths on Saturday. (ABC Mid North Coast: Emma Siossian)
The NSW Electoral Commission's initial count had Mr Dwyer ahead of his National Party rival, cattle farmer Sean Gleeson.
As of 2pm Monday Mr Dwyer had 58.7 per cent of the vote and Mr Gleeson 46.9 per cent.
The result will not be declared until after March 31, the final day for postal votes to be lodged.
"We will need to wait for those to come through, but the numbers are greater at the moment in the difference than there are postal votes out there," Mr Dwyer said.
He thanked his volunteer team and his party leaders for their support.
"[I'm] so happy with the support that I've had from Leslie Williams and the team of the Liberal Party," Mr Dwyer said.
"We've had the leader, Mark Speakman, up at least on three or four occasions, sometimes for four or five days.
"The level of support has been amazing."
Nationals candidate Sean Gleeson says the party went into the campaign at a disadvantage. (ABC Mid North Coast: Emma Siossian)
Campaigning on the back foot
Mr Gleeson said the Nationals were unprepared for the mid-term by-election.
"We only had three and a half weeks to really to get that done, to campaign," he said.
"Whereas the Liberals had the opportunity of obviously having incumbency and knowing exactly when the by-election was going to be called.
"The key thing that I'm taking away from it is we've had a huge swing back towards the Nationals and I think the time-frame for us, for me, just wasn't quite enough."
The Nationals campaign stumbled at the start when party leader Dugald Saunders launched the candidacy of general practitioner Warwick Yonge, who dumped by the state executive days later.
Dr Yonge's subsequent decision to stand as an independent may also have hurt the Nationals — he snared 5,494 primary votes, amounting to a third of the two leaders' first-preference votes.
Dr Yonge stood as an independent after being dumped by the National Party. (ABC Coffs Coast: Claire Simmonds)
But Liberal leaders say Dr Yonge's candidacy did little to move the needle.
"I don't think that had any significant impact and I don't think it changed the result at all," Mr Speakman said.
"There was no Labor, there was no teal candidate — I think a lot of Labor voters and teal voters who didn't want to vote for a Coalition party – or the Greens or Legalise Cannabis – probably parked their votes with Dr Yonge," Mr Speakman said.
The three-cornered contest is the only exception to the Coalition agreement.
"There was a Coalition agreement last time … we still have a three-cornered contest in Port Macquarie but not elsewhere, so that's something that will be negotiated in due course," Mr Speakman said.
"The Liberal party is not just a Sydney party — we are a party of the regions as well and we have six MPs now who are outside Sydney, so we are certainly heavily invested in the regions."
But the Nationals have not finished with Port Macquarie yet.
"I've got two years to keep touching base with the community, people and the residents in the whole electorate and I just want to thank the people who did vote for me and put their trust in me," Mr Gleeson said.
"Unfortunately it doesn't look as though I'm going to be the person to represent the Port Macquarie electorate, but I'm looking forward to continuing the fight."