AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon (left) inherited the Tasmanian deal from his predecessor, and must now navigate the path forward. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
It was the power of Australia's biggest sporting organisation, against its smallest state.
In early June 2022, then-AFL boss Gillon McLachlan and other "powerbrokers" visited Hobart to look at a few sites, including Macquarie Point.
Until this moment, the Tasmanian government had wanted to build a new roofed stadium at the nearby Regatta Point — although it wasn't seen as a requirement for a new AFL team.
But during this June trip, everything appeared to change.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Gillon McLachlan walk out to address the media after their June 2022 meeting. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Emerging from a meeting together, McLachlan and Premier Jeremy Rockliff were asked by the media about whether a stadium was contingent on Tasmania entering the AFL.
McLachlan muttered to Mr Rockliff that he was happy to field the question.
"If it's going to be a 19th [AFL] licence … there'll be a new stadium," he said.
The AFL was believed to be "impressed" with Macquarie Point — a relatively constrained piece of reclaimed land wedged between a working port, a major road, a strip of heritage buildings and a raised cenotaph.
And so, a few months later, the site was "chosen".
The deal was signed in May 2023. (Facebook: Jeremy Rockliff)
No one — other than those present — knows for sure what was said during McLachlan's fly-in visit.
But the decisions made behind closed doors then, and over the following few months, have left Tasmania effectively backed up against a wall by the AFL, enshrined in a contract that puts taxpayers on the hook for delays and cost blowouts.
Tasmania had to find a way to make Macquarie Point work — or else lose its team.
'Tasmanians feel that's bullying'
The government-commissioned report by economist Nicholas Gruen released on Friday lays out the consequences of those fateful series of events.
Economist Dr Nicholas Gruen says the deal between the AFL and Tasmania is heavily skewed in the AFL's favour, and could end up being in neither's interests. (ABC News)
Too few people, making too large a decision.
"A good negotiation is a good decision made by lots of people where they focus on what they really, really want," Dr Gruen said.
"The AFL want a competitive Tasmanian team, everyone wants that, that's their core.
"But then they've added lots of other things, and Tasmanians feel that that's bullying."
Foreseeing the political reality, Mr Rockliff said the state would not spend "a red cent more" than $375 million on the stadium — a promise that Dr Gruen says is impossible to achieve, and could create further problems anyway.
AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon (centre) visits Macquarie Point in June 2024. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Chief among those is putting the government at even more of a disadvantage when it tries to negotiate with private investors to cover undisclosed costs — trading away parts of the project that might have actually made money.
And, in the end, it could be a uniquely Tasmanian problem.
The state essentially had to grovel for an AFL team, having been knocked back multiple times, including when it seemed certain that it was all going to come together.
Perth Stadium was also built as part of a public-private partnership, but with far longer lead-in times than what's been stipulated for Macquarie Point. (ABC News: Jon Sambell)
In Western Australia, for example, the government had ample time to plan the new Perth Stadium, reach an agreement with private partners without the added pressure of tight time frames and cost constraints, and use relatively disused land.
The outcome couldn't have been more different.
Increasing uncertainty over Macquarie Point option
The AFL might need to start paying attention to the political problem it's created in Tasmania.
That's because it's still not certain that the Macquarie Point stadium will actually go ahead.
It will need to pass both houses of parliament later this year.
The Labor opposition appears to be having increasing reservations about how the process is unfolding, requesting an urgent briefing with the Premier about the Gruen report.
The proposed Macquarie Point stadium will need the support of both houses of parliament, and it's unclear if it will receive that. (Supplied: MPDC)
And even with Labor's support, the government faces a challenge in getting it through the upper house, requiring at least one — and in some circumstances, two — independents to support it.
Upper house MLCs recently defeated two pieces of government legislation, despite both being supported by Labor.
And their concerns with those bills centred on a lack of consultation, due process concerns, and unintended consequences — issues that are well and truly present with the stadium.
As Dr Gruen says, he would be surprised if the AFL didn't show "leniency" with Tasmania on the stadium.
This could include removing the cost penalties for delays, allowing the club to play a few more seasons at Bellerive Oval and York Park, and assessing if other sites might make more sense.
With the parliamentary hurdle still to be overcome, being willing to negotiate something better for the Tasmanian community could end up being essential.
The future of the Devils depends on it.