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Friends and partners weigh up Canberra’s ‘relentless’ Pacific push

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Like their countries, Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Marape share a love of rugby league (ABC: Ali Almond)

It has been a frenetic week in what Foreign Minister Penny Wong has called the "permanent contest" between Australia and China across the blue Pacific.

In just four days, the federal government unveiled a new treaty with Nauru, opened a massive training centre for Pacific police and struck a landmark deal to bring the NRL to Papua New Guinea.

Meanwhile, China's ambassador to Vanuatu, Li Minggang, presided over a major ceremony in Port Vila, announcing a generous donation for the country's police and security forces, handing over four patrol boats, 20 motorcycles and 20 vehicles.

"Good things are worth waiting for!" he declared to the crowd.

The flurry of activity was a neat final crescendo to another year of high-stakes, high-energy diplomacy from Australia in the Pacific.

It's a powerful illustration of just how determined the Albanese government has been to cement Australia's strategic position in the Pacific in the face of equally relentless forays from China.

So what is the government hoping to achieve?

Will all this furious activity and creative diplomacy work?

And what do other countries around the region and far overseas make of it all?

Both admiration and doubt

The diplomats tasked with tracking Australia's Pacific push have been kept mighty busy over the last 12 months.

And when you talk with officials from Australian allies and partners, you sometimes pick up a mixture of admiration, uncertainty and frustration.

They're quick to acknowledge the scale of what the federal government is trying to do, and say senior ministers have reinvigorated Australia's strategy.

But they also worry that Canberra's push to strike new bargains and reshape regional architecture may not hold, simply because future Pacific governments will abandon the deals or find a way to ratchet up the price.

"They're in a mad rush, and you have to applaud the ambition," says one official from a country aligned with Australia.

"They've also thrown the resources at it, which not everyone who has talked a big game in the Pacific has actually been willing to do."

"But the concern is: will it hold? [Or] if you moved a bit more deliberately through the [regional] institutions and socialised within these [Pacific] countries and these institutions, would it be more durable?"

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

Prime Minister James Marape and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the new PNG team in Sydney this week. (AAP: Mick Tsikas)

And they worry that the PNG NRL deal — which cobbles together soft and hard power by tying the new team directly to a promise from PNG not to sign a security pact with China — could be a good example of overreach.

"What guarantees can the government really have that this will hold once [Prime Minister] Marape and [Foreign Minister] Justin Tkatchenko go?" they ask.

"Would Australia really withdraw funding if a future government in PNG decides to back away from the deal?"

The government insists it's aware of these risks and can manage them.

During multiple briefings in Canberra earlier this week, government officials told foreign diplomats that no future PNG government would dare risk the NRL franchise by breaching its undertakings to Australia.

Pacific Minister Pat Conroy made a similar argument on 7.30 this week, projecting confidence in the pact.

"The only thing that unites Papua New Guinea is the national religion of rugby league," he said.

"And I'm very confident that any future government will see the value of that and won't do anything that undermines having a rugby league team in the National Rugby League competition."

Time will be the ultimate judge of whether that bet is a good one.

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

NRL is Papua New Guinea's national sport. (PNG Kumuls Facebook)

The contest is afoot

The PNG NRL deal has commanded more airtime and attention than anything else the government has tried in the Pacific — but it's only one part of a much broader strategy.

Labor came to office in the wake of a major strategic shock, with the Solomon Islands sending shivers through Canberra by signing a sweeping security pact with China.

Since then the federal government has struck new bargains, harnessed the private sector, developed new diplomatic partnerships and ploughed more resources into the Pacific, in a ceaseless quest to get Australia on firmer footing.

Labor believes it has a good story to tell on this front which — perhaps — hasn't received sufficient attention or acclaim.

"We're in a much, much better place than we were," says one government frontbencher.

"When you think about what we were facing in the Pacific when we came into office [with the Solomon Islands China deal] and compare it to where we are now … it's a clear contrast."

PNG team to enter NRL under long-awaited deal with Australia

Photo shows A man celebrates scoring a try in a rugby league match

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

Australia and Papua New Guinea have unveiled a long-awaited deal handing PNG its own NRL team, confirming the league's most ambitious expansion since formation.

It's impossible to deny the sheer weight of energy and resources that the government has thrown into the contest.

With the Nauru Treaty and the Falepili Union with Tuvalu, the government has shown it's willing to use innovative diplomacy and strike new "grand bargains" with Pacific Island states, trading off money and migration pathways for security guarantees.

With the NRL deal, it's shown an appetite for linking sport with hard politics, exploiting the vast reservoirs of enthusiasm for the game in PNG to try and keep China at bay.

With the Pacific Policing Initiative and the Pacific Support Group, it has capitalised on Australia's geography and membership of key regional organisations to build up a new security architecture that deliberately excludes outside players — particularly Beijing.

With the Pacific Engagement Visa, it's started to build a broader Pacific diaspora in Australia, recognising how invaluable these bonds could prove as it embarks on a broader project of slow (albeit partial) regional integration.

With its roving cybersecurity teams, it's helped multiple Pacific countries repel attacks from criminal groups and state actors — even if much of their work remains secret.

And with its deals with ANZ, Commonwealth, Google and Telstra, it has used taxpayer dollars, persuasion and pressure to marshal the resources and presence of major corporations in the Pacific as well.

How Australia scored a try with PNG

Photo shows A PNG rugby league football player stands among a crowd of fans holding up their hands.

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

The "soft power" aspect to this sports diplomacy initiative has never been a secret. But in the game of regional politics, Australia went in for the hard tackle.

All this on top of Australia's existing development program in the Pacific, which eats up an ever-growing proportion of the total aid budget and will top $2 billion in 2024-25.

Labor is probably too quick to skate over the Morrison government's Pacific Step-Up, which laid some of the institutional foundations for this push.

But Mihai Sora from the Lowy Institute says the Albanese government can still rightfully claim to have notched up some substantial victories in the Pacific.

"Australia's strategy is for closer integration. Closer security integration, closer economic integration, closer community ties, media ties — even sport is on the table," he says.

"The ultimate objective for Australia is to maintain a security environment we feel comfortable with, and which helps contribute to the Pacific's own security."

And creating that "comfortable" environment means making sure China is kept to the margins of Pacific policing and defence spheres, as well as making sure it doesn't get an opportunity to establish a military beachhead in the region.

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

The Bank of China is planning to open its first Pacific branch in Port Moresby. (Reuters: Tingshu Wang)

The C word

The government has become much more frank about this over the last year or so.

It's not just Foreign Minister Penny Wong who refers to Australia being in a "permanent contest" in the Pacific — Pat Conroy and senior Australian officials have started to pick up the phrase as well.

Wong has never named China as the adversary in this contest, but she doesn't need to. It's instantly obvious which country she's referring to.

Last week, Wong also inched closer to publicly spelling out China's military ambitions in the region, telling a New Zealand TV station that Beijing was "working quite hard to establish a strong security presence in the Pacific".

Conroy also acknowledged that the government was being more "explicit" about China's military push, suggesting they were doing this because Beijing's campaign had intensified.

Of course, this doesn't mean everything that Australia does is all about China, all the time.

Bank of China set to gain Pacific foothold with first PNG branch

Photo shows two men cheers in front of a red background

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

The Bank of China is on the brink of establishing a branch in Port Moresby, a move that is being watched closely by the Australian government.

Banking is a good example.

Even if the Bank of China wasn't probing in the Pacific, the government would have a compelling interest in stopping the withdrawal of banks and correspondent banking ties — developments that could undermine the stability and financial viability of the whole region, with serious consequences for Australia.

But the government also recognises that if it's going to have to spend substantially more money to preserve its position, then it's going to need to explain to taxpayers why the expense is justified.

And ultimately, that means being more explicit about what China is doing and why Australia is trying to head it off.

"We're faced with the reality now that to preserve our security in the Pacific is going to cost a lot more today or tomorrow than it has in the past," says Mihai Sora.

"Pacific nations are acutely aware of the value of their own sovereignty and strategic choices, and how important those choices are to Canberra."

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

Graeme Smith's research interests are Chinese state and non-state actors in the Pacific and South-East Asia. (Supplied: Pobke Photography/ANU)

Graeme Smith from the Australian National University says the Albanese government might also see a clear electoral advantage if it can convince voters it is fighting — and winning — a strategic battle with Beijing.

Persistent and high levels of public suspicion towards China will also help, he argues.

"The government looks at the polling numbers, and they believe there's a consensus on China there," he says.

"Public sentiment has caught up with what the government is doing."

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

Australia has used its position as a full member of the Pacific Islands Forum to try and shut out China. (ABC News: Kurt Peterson)

The spectre of neocolonialism

The government might feel confident it has the backing of the Australian voters, but they're not the only people it has to keep onside.

Some worry that Australia's scramble to push China back will end up undermining regional sovereignty and solidarity, stirring fresh resentments across the Pacific and diminishing Canberra's position along the way.

Australia undeniably has close friends and allies in the Pacific — politicians, military men, police officers and officials who have a real fondness for Canberra and who sympathise with its worldview.

But it's no secret that other Pacific Island officials and politicians are deeply cynical about Australia's motives.

Some of these elites have drawn much closer to China, or have benefited from Chinese largesse.

Others see both China and Australia as largely self-interested outside players who have failed to move with nearly enough urgency on climate change and who are obsessed largely with their own strategic imperatives.

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

Anna Powles is a Pacific expert from Massey University. (Twitter: @AnnaPowles)

Anna Powles from Massey University says Australia's coordinated push to strike new deals and set up new security architecture has been met with some concern and frustration in quarters of the Pacific.

"Since 2018, Australia has been building a bilateral and multilateral security architecture in the Pacific akin to a hub and spokes system," she tells the ABC.

"But key questions, such as how the new security initiatives align with the Biketawa Declaration [a regional agreement that outlines how Pacific countries respond to crises] remain unclear."

Australia's constant invocation of the "Pacific family" and the way it's used its position as a full member of the Pacific Islands Forum to try and shut out China might also be breeding cynicism.

Earlier this year, former PIF deputy secretary-general Sione Tetetki suggested that Pacific nations were getting increasingly tired of this framing.

"While it is important to reinforce the power of the region as one political bloc, it comes off as self-serving," he wrote.

That might frustrate Australian officials, who insist they are working to balance China not just because it might pose a security threat to Australia but because Beijing's diplomacy, commercial practices and campaign of elite capture have potentially damaging repercussions throughout the region.

And so far, there has been vastly more praise than criticism from Pacific leaders on Australia's new agenda.

Still, Canberra is going to have to redouble its efforts if it wants to convince the Pacific that self-interest isn't its primary driver.

At the same time, it will have to convince outside friends and allies that it can ward off a competitor as powerful, well-resourced and determined as China.

Pacific aid sharply down, according to new report

Photo shows A road with palm trees along the side, and blue sky.

Friends and partners weigh up Canberra's 'relentless' Pacific push

Pacific aid dropped sharply as COVID support ended, while China has re-emerged as the second largest donor in the region.

Earlier this year, one senior Western government official told the ABC that Australian diplomats and politicians were realistic about just how much they could do.

"They're trying to slow down China, but they know they can't stop them entirely," they said.

One of Australia's main advantages lies in our geography: in the end, what happens in the Pacific is critical for Australia, while China is balancing a long and growing list of global interests and priorities.

Perhaps if Australia continues to push back furiously, China will lose interest and back away.

But it's an uncertain prospect that can, at times, breed a strange mix of determination and fatalism in Canberra.

This feeling was summed up neatly by one member of the government earlier this year when they were asked whether one of its new Pacific initiatives would stop China gaining a security foothold.

"We're not 100 per cent sure," they said.

"But it's definitely worth a shot."

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