ASX closes down, Guzman y Gomez shares rise, Premier and Myer down ahead of merger vote — as it happened

The Australian share market has lost earlier gains to close lower, ahead of key jobs data out tomorrow, along with US inflation numbers.

Premier Investments and Myer ended the day down as shareholders prepared to vote on the merger of Myer and Premier's apparel brands next week.

Mexican-inspired fast food restaurant chain Guzman y Gomez saw gains after a positive note by UBS analysts.

Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

Key Events

ASX closes lower after mixed day of trade
More federal funding for NT rare earths mine
Is Elon Musk really looking to buy TikTok?

Market snapshot

ASX 200: +0.2% to 8,248 points
Australian dollar: Flat at 61.88 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (+0.5%), S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq (-0.2%)
Europe: FTSE (-0.3%), DAX (+0.7%), Stoxx 600 (-0.1%)
Spot gold: -0.25% to $US2,670/ounce
Brent crude: -0.9% to $US80.32/barrel
Iron ore: +1.9% to $US100.88/tonne
Bitcoin: +1.05% to $US97,452

Prices current around 1:00pm AEDT

Live updates on major ASX indices:

ASX closes lower after mixed day of trade

The Australian share market has finished the day lower after losing some earlier gains.

The All Ordinaries and the ASX 200 were down 0.2%.

Traders are seemingly nervously awaiting key US inflation data out overnight, which is expected to reveal the critical core inflation number stuck at 3.3%.

The losses on the ASX200 also look like they're tied back to Chinese financial markets. The index dropped around the start of trade in mainland markets and fell in sympathy with the Chinese yuan. No clear reason why but it may be due to some data showing a slowing growth in credit for the first time in 13 years.

Lithium miners and restaurant chain Guzman Y Gomez led the market today, as we reported earlier, while shares in Star were back to 13 cents.

Premier Investments and Myer ended the day down. As we reported earlier, it comes ahead of the retailers' shareholder meetings to be held next Thursday, where investors will vote on the merger of Myer and Premier's apparel brands. We will bring you coverage of that outcome.

That's all from me for today but be sure to come back and visit tomorrow when all-important jobs data is released, with big implications for the RBA's rate cut decision next month. As always, we will have extensive coverage of the data and analysis here on the blog.

More federal funding for NT rare earths mine

And now a dispatch from NT-based rural reporter Dan Fitzgerald.

A federal government investment fund has committed $200 million to help develop Arafura Rare Earths's Nolans Project in Central Australia.

It brings total public funding commitments for the project to more than $1 billion.

Here's his report:

A big elephant

Hi Nadia, I'm curious: We have "important" data releases, such as core inflation, consumer sentiment, unemployment statistics et al, and analysts often place great significance in these. But, surely the elephant-in-the-room is the imminent Trump presidency? Am I alone in thinking there are vast investments just waiting for next week and wildly swinging markets to follow just as quickly? You wouldn't want to be checking your superannuation balances on a daily basis without a string constitution to back it up!

– Andrew

Hi Andrew, it certainly is a very large elephant. Though I think it's probably more front of mind than you might imagine for Australian businesses (see my recent post on impact of Trump tariffs on Aus exporters).

As for market swings, you are likely correct that the flurry of new policies and other movements that occur when Trump takes the reins are likely to cause some market movement. Buckle up!

AI to be defining tech trend in 2025

A survey of tech leaders by the Tech Council of Australia and Datacom has found a third believe artificial intelligence will present the greatest opportunity to businesses.

Here are some key takeaways:

The defining tech trends of 2025 are artificial intelligence (67%), cybersecurity (17%), and sustainability and circular technologies (7%)
93% of respondents said Australia is not doing enough to tackle the macroeconomic productivity challenge
Economic uncertainty was identified as the top threat to their organisation as a whole (39%), followed by a lack of skills within teams (32%)

Premier Investments, Myer down as shareholder vote looms

Shares in both Premier Investments and Myer are down (again) today.

Weak sales updates from both companies has soured sentiment this week.

Myer and Premier shares over last three months:

ASX closes down, Guzman y Gomez shares rise, Premier and Myer down ahead of merger vote — as it happened

Myer (blue line, RHS) and Premier (white line, LHS) (LSEG Refdinitiv)

It comes ahead of the retailers' shareholder meetings to be held next Thursday, where investors will vote on the merger of Myer and Premier's apparel brands.

This morning, Myer released a statement confirming that an independent expert, who had already concluded that the transaction was "fair and reasonable" to Myer shareholders, continued to back the deal in light of the trading updates.

Premier's board said it continues to unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the deal.

Is Elon Musk really looking to buy TikTok?

Elon Musk is dominating news today – but this post is not about his role with X (formerly Twitter) but instead TikTok.

The app is currently facing a potential ban in the US on January 19 (this weekend) if the Chinese-based parent company ByteDance does not sell off its US arm.

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments in the case this week. The US government views TikTok as a national security threat due to concerns the Chinese parents company (and by extension the Chinese government) may have access to US citizens' data.

(Though soon-to-be president Donald Trump is thought to have changed his tune on TikTok and has seemingly warmed to the app – and is now not so keen on banning it. )

Now, Bloomberg has reported that Elon Musk is interested in buying the US arm of TikTok and owner ByteDance is considering the offer.

While it may seem left of field, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says it's not a total shock, due to the growing alliance between Trump and Mr Musk:

"Behind the scenes the Trump White House is looking at alternatives if the Supreme Court upholds the ban. In addition, Beijing/Xi Jinping has a strong relationship with Musk so there would be added comfort in this deal/potential partnership to avoid a TikTok ban in our view."

"We believe in the scenario that ByteDance sold the US operations of TikTok this would be without the algorithm (ByteDance will never sell this key DNA) at a price tag likely in the $40 billion to $50 billion range. This would significantly enhance the value of Twitter/X platform and likely Musk would take outside investments for this potential golden asset pickup. It's also possible that instead of an outright sale this results in a joint partnership with Musk playing a major role and helping avoid a true ban of TikTok in the US."

Mr Ives also reports that Trump met with TikTok's CEO Shou Zi Chew in December.

How Australian businesses should prepare for Trump tariffs

Australian exporters may be wondering how incoming US president Donald Trump's trade policies might impact their business and supply chains.

While a lot is still unknown, accounting firm BDO's Tax Partner Leonie Ferretter warned businesses the Australian-United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) may not protect them from the tariffs.

"The AUSFTA reduced tariffs on most non-agricultural exports and a significant portion of agricultural goods, but it’s not the agreement that will protect Australian exporters from new tariffs.

"During Donald Trump’s previous administration, Australia’s exemption from steel and aluminium tariffs was more due to the US’s $40 billion trade surplus with Australia and our strategic military alliance, rather than the AUSFTA."

Ms Ferretter also warned that under President Trump’s “America First” agenda, free trade agreements such as the AUSFTA may come under scrutiny:

"Trump has historically shown a preference for renegotiating or abandoning agreements he believes don’t serve US interests, as seen with the exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the overhaul of NAFTA into the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement"

Elon Musk's lawyers say he 'has done nothing wrong'

More now on that news we brought you earlier that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is suing Elon Musk.

Reporter Kate Ainsworth has the details:

Telstra says most data & AI employees will move to joint venture

Following up on a story we brought you earlier, Telstra's announcement of a joint venture with Accenture to increase its artificial intelligence capacity.

The proposal for a seven-year JV is subject to consultations with staff and unions because it involves a reshuffle of current staff.

A Telstra spokesperson told the ABC "the vast majority of permanent employees in Telstra’s existing Data & AI team across Australia and India will be offered roles in the proposed joint venture".

Currently, there are about 720 team members and the Telstra Enterprise Agreement will still apply to the people who move to the JV.

Around 30 current team members in New Zealand and the Philippines will be "offered an opportunity directly with Accenture".

Consultation with Telstra staff and unions will take place over the next few weeks — so watch this space for any further announcements on the jobs front, and, of course, seven years is a long time.

"It will be important the JV is able to adapt to become more efficient and meet changing needs as the acceleration of Telstra’s data and AI roadmap is delivered. And over the seven-year period this would influence potential changes in the workforce," the spokesperson said.

In May last year, Telstra announced that it would cut up to 2,800 jobs, mainly from its Enterprise division.

Do you have shares in Star? Send our reporter an email

Emilia jumping in for a second here.

I've been reporting on Star Entertainment's woes this week as the casino operator's share price sits at near record lows and speculation continues that it is going belly up.

The ABC would like to speak to people who have shares in Star or have sold them off in recent times as they've tanked.

Is this you? Send me a confidential email on [email protected] and we can talk (even off record!)

Australian share market higher at lunch time

The ASX is higher this afternoon, up 0.3% to 8254 points at 12:20pm

Star Entertainment is no longer the top mover. It's been replaced by fast food chain Guzman Y Gomez, which is up 6.6% to $40.84 after UBS ungraded the stock in a research note, saying it was likely to beat market expectations for annual sales growth and earnings margins.

ASX closes down, Guzman y Gomez shares rise, Premier and Myer down ahead of merger vote — as it happened

Lithium miners Liontown Resources and Pilbara Minerals are close behind.

The Australian dollar is lower, buying 61.84 US cents.

Mining production expected to rise 2-3% in December quarter

A note from RBC Capital Markets on the mining sector reports December quarter results are expected to show production ramped up, with iron ore volumes reaccelerating, while expectations for lithium are pared back due to recent production cuts announced by miners.

On mining overall:

"On average, we expect production to rise ~2-3% QoQ, and a commensurate decrease in unit costs, led by bulk miners. Operational performance has generally been patchy, and while we see some risk to guidance this quarter (outlined below), the bulk miners have done a good job of delivering volumes to the market, albeit at the expense of quality."

Things are looking up for the sector this year:

"On costs, we are past the point of cost inflation and are now seeing margin support via a lower AUD, freight rates and treatment/refining charges, which are supportive of FCF."

NAB reports increased spending in December

NAB has released its December data and found, unlike some other retail figures we've seen in recent days, consumer spending increased 0.6% in December.

Its data showed it was driven by services (+1.3%) and discretionary spending (+0.9%), while retail spending went down 0.2% month on month after a surge in October/November for Black Friday and other sales.

The data shows we spent more on vehicles and fuel (+2.4%) as well as cafes and restaurants (+0.7%) and less on retail (-0.2%).

Over the year, consumer spending increased by 6.5%.

ASX boosted by academic, real estate stocks as Star continues to climb

Hello, Nadia Daly here to take you through to this afternoon on the blog.

Let's start by taking a closer look at which industries are performing the best on the local share market:

ASX closes down, Guzman y Gomez shares rise, Premier and Myer down ahead of merger vote — as it happened

Technology and healthcare are faring the worst while academic, real estate and basic minerals are helping to lift the ASX 200.

In terms of individual stocks, Star Entertainment is the top mover again today, after it was revealed yesterday a mystery Macau-based investor had bought up more stock in the company and was now one of the major shareholders. Intrigue is swirling around what his intentions are with the struggling casino operator.

ASX closes down, Guzman y Gomez shares rise, Premier and Myer down ahead of merger vote — as it happened

UBS takes a positive view on Guzman Y Gomez

Analysts at UBS are painting a bright outlook for the Mexican fast-food chain in their latest research note.

They say Guzman Y Gomez is likely to beat market expectations for annual sales growth and earnings margins.

UBS has changed the rating on the stock to neutral from sell and increased its 12-month price target to $40.00 a share from $37.00. UBS credits menu changes, longer opening hours and increased delivery orders for its view.

(Sales growth) is expected to surprise on the upside in Full Year 2025 and beyond (menu innovation, daypart participation, delivery growth, opening hours), while new store growth is expected to accelerate (and meet Full Year 2025 prospectus), say UBS Analyst Shaun Cousins and UBS Analyst James Meares.

Shares in GYG are up 5.1% this morning at $40.29.

Guzman Y Gomez listed on the ASX in June last year at $22.00 a share. It's currently trading at more than a 78% premium to that original offer price.

Musk lawyer responds to news of SEC court action

Reuters has obtained a response from Elon Musk's lawyer, after news broke that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is suing Mr Musk for allegedly failing to disclose his March 2022 purchase of Twitter stock in a timely manner.

In an email, lawyer Alex Spiro said "Mr Musk has done nothing wrong and everyone sees this sham for what it is."

The SEC's complaint alleges the delay in disclosure allowed Mr Musk to continue buying Twitter shares at "artificially low prices", underpaying by at least $US150 million.

The SEC is seeking a fine and for Musk give up profits he was not entitled to.