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How the WA election could shape Anthony Albanese’s federal fortunes

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Roger Cook and Anthony Albanese take selfies with punters on a Perth train. (AAP: Richard Wainwright)

Western Australia has plenty of quirks.

Quokkas, long mac coffees, a unique time zone and a controversial GST deal.

But after today, one of WA's biggest oddities — Australia's most lopsided parliament — is expected to return towards equilibrium.

The ABC's full coverage of the 2025 WA state election

Photo shows Libby Mettam, Roger Cook, Shane Love

How the WA election could shape Anthony Albanese's federal fortunes

In 2021, at the height of COVID restrictions and border closures, former WA Premier Mark McGowan was overwhelmingly re-elected, winning 53 of the WA Parliament's 59 lower house seats.

It was a "landslide" win, a "bloodbath" and "humiliating", depending on who you ask.

McGowan cemented his position as a rockstar of Australian politics, then quit two years later while he was still ahead.

Today's result is unlikely to be anywhere near as dramatic, but it could have important consequences.

The McGowan effect

McGowan's popularity was credited with helping Anthony Albanese move into The Lodge.

But with his chances of winning majority government at the next poll looking increasingly slim, WA could once again play a key role in deciding who governs the nation.

How the WA election could shape Anthony Albanese's federal fortunes

Mark McGowan's popularity was credited with getting Anthony Albanese into The Lodge in 2022. (ABC News: James Carmody)

Albanese desperately needs to hang onto the seats he's won, and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will struggle to win without taking them back.

The state and federal difference

Notre Dame professor of politics Martin Drum said people often vote differently in the state and federal elections.

"You've got a number of [traditionally] Liberal state seats where perhaps the federal campaigners on both sides are watching that result to see if they can discern local voting patterns," he said.

How the WA election could shape Anthony Albanese's federal fortunes

Martin Drum believes state voting patterns are not necessarily indicative of federal trends in WA. (ABC News: Ruby Littler)

"I'm not that convinced that we'll learn a lot either way because of how differently the federal and state voting patterns appear already according to polling.

Antony Green's complete guide to the 2025 WA state election

Photo shows Graphic with text saying WA Votes

How the WA election could shape Anthony Albanese's federal fortunes

No election should ever, or can ever, be treated as a forgone conclusion. But it's a principle that is hard to stick by when writing a preview for the 2025 Western Australian election.

"You're getting polling at the same time indicating very healthy Labor primaries at a state level and low primaries at a federal level.

"That would indicate people are already thinking differently about how they vote.

"But if they [Labor] lose a fair slice of the vote but still win handsomely, which could well be the case, I wouldn't think that, in itself, would be cause for alarm federally."

Outer suburban votes important

Pollster Tony Barry of RedBridge said he would be paying close attention to state seats in outer Perth that might not necessarily change hands, but could provide clues ahead of the federal poll.

How the WA election could shape Anthony Albanese's federal fortunes

Votes cast in the WA election by those in Perth's outer areas could provide useful insights into the federal poll. (ABC News: Marcus Alborn)

"Two of the litmus seats for us will be Jandakot and Forrestfield. They are electorates with a large population of self-described working-class and blue-collar [voters], also very much aspirational families in outer-suburban seats.

"How those voters respond in this state campaign might give us a bit of a look behind the curtain as to how they might respond in the federal campaign."

Liberal swing of 12 per cent?

Mr Barry said RedBridge research indicated swings of around 12 per cent to the Liberal party.

"That is not uniform, we are seeing bigger swings in the outer suburbs of Perth and in the regions, but that does not necessarily mean they are going to be flipped seats to the Liberal party," he said.

How the WA election could shape Anthony Albanese's federal fortunes

The Liberal Party was reduced to just two members in WA's lower house after the last election — Libby Mettam and David Honey. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)

"At the moment we are looking at about a dozen seats that are in play for the Liberal party. But that still puts them well short of the 30 needed for government."

The Liberals won 13 seats in 2017 — which at the time was their worst ever result.

After four years of soul-searching and promises of reform, today's poll will indicate how convinced West Australians are about the party's rebuild, and whether they might be more confident voting for them again federally.

Check out our 2025 WA state election page for all of the ABC's coverage.

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