David Pocock became the first independent senator to represent the ACT in 2022. He's hoping to retain that seat. (Australian Story: Matt Roberts)
When election observers ask where a federal poll will be won and lost, the ACT rarely rates a mention.
But since independent senator David Pocock broke through for an historic victory in 2022, the capital has attracted more attention.
His success was repeated, albeit at a smaller scale, in the ACT election last year, which suggests the appetite for a political alternative has not been quenched in Canberra.
Even so, it will take a lot to dislodge Labor MPs in one of the strongest Labor cities in the country.
The issues shaping as key
Even before the campaign proper has begun, Canberra has featured prominently in the opposition's plan to reduce government spending.
Peter Dutton has flagged axing as many as 36,000 public servants, roughly equivalent to the number of extra staff Labor has hired in its first term.
Fewer than 40 per cent of the new recruits actually work in Canberra, and there is some ambiguity about how many Canberra-based staff could be cut, and whether the roles would be outsourced.
But it would not be the first time a newly-minted Liberal prime minister took an axe to the service; John Howard began his first term in 1996 by slashing the number of public servants, which triggered a downturn for the local economy.
Anthony Albanese unveiled a boost to Medicare funding at a rally in Tasmania on Sunday. (ABC News: Ashleigh Barraclough)
As for Labor's agenda, its recently announced boost to Medicare attracted significant attention in a jurisdiction saddled with the lowest bulk billing rates in the country.
Against the backdrop of a ballooning health budget at the territory level, efforts to strengthen primary care may ease another Labor government's headache, if they are successful.
But Labor's first-term efforts only saw a marginal increase in bulk billing rates in Canberra, and local health figures have cast doubt on just how many more Canberrans could expect to see a doctor for free under these changes.
Race for the Senate the most compelling
While Senate races are often an afterthought, in the ACT it is by far the most compelling electoral contest.
Labor got a third of the vote — a full quota — in 2022, ahead of the Liberals just shy of 25 per cent, and David Pocock on 21 per cent.
But even from third, the former Wallaby received enough preferences — largely from the Greens and another prominent independent — to defeat Liberal minister Zed Seselja for the second seat.
Now running for re-election, the consensus is that Senator Pocock's vote is likely to increase — although he is less bullish about his prospects.
Finance Minister Katy Gallagher could be under pressure if Senator Pocock draws more votes than her. (ABC News: Nick Haggarty)
If he draws more votes from Labor, it could put Finance Minister Katy Gallgher in the danger zone.
But the Liberals' effort to reclaim a seat has been complicated by a preselection bungle.
The party called a special meeting to consider dumping its lead candidate Jacob Vadakkedathu over branch-stacking concerns — which he has denied — but simply confirmed the original result.
Member for Bean David Smith's primary vote in 2022 was the lowest of all three of Canberra's Labor MPs at 42 per cent. (ABC News: Marco Catalano)
One house seat to watch
The southernmost of the three ACT electorates, Bean, is presenting one of the least predictable contests this time around.
Labor's David Smith holds the seat covering Tuggeranong, Weston Creek, most of Woden, and the Molonglo Valley, by almost 13 per cent.
But this is the one seat in the ACT where a 'Voices of' group has activated a campaign behind an independent candidate, midwife Jessie Price.
The last election showed an independent can be successful if they can bring an incumbent's primary down below 40 per cent, get their own vote up to around 30, and attract enough preferences.
David Smith's primary vote in 2022 was the lowest of all three Labor MPs at 42 per cent.
But this is also the part of Canberra the Liberals have typically done best in, and if the party's vote recovers, it may help keep this as a traditional two-party contest, albeit a closer one.
Elsewhere, the Greens will once again target Labor's Alicia Payne in Canberra, after the party broke through and finished second in 2022.
The most senior of the ACT's three lower house MPs, Andrew Leigh, is one of only two declared candidates in the northern seat of Fenner, and is not expected to face a substantial challenge.
Yet, as the political consensus breaks across the country, often serving up unexpected results as it did in 2022, not even the ACT is immune to surprises.
Member for Fenner Andrew Leigh is not expected to face a substantial challenge for his seat. (Matt Roberts)