Support for the proposed stadium is strongest in the south and among younger Tasmanians with families, the poll shows. (Supplied: Tasmanian government)
If it wasn't already official, it is now: The proposed Macquarie Point stadium is massively on the nose among northern Tasmanians.
New EMRS polling, released on Tuesday, found an overwhelming 67 per cent of people in northern Tasmania opposed the stadium while 65 per cent of north-west coasters were not fans.
EMRS is owned by Font PR, which is co-owned by former Liberal strategist Brad Stansfield. The managing director of EMRS is Mary Massina, who is the former CEO of the Macquarie Point Development Corporation.
A visualisation of a concert underway at the proposed Macquarie Point stadium. (Supplied: Macquarie Point Development Corporation)
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In the north-west seat of Braddon, just 27 per cent of respondents supported the stadium, with 65 per cent against and 7 per cent unsure.
In the north-east seat of Bass, 64 per cent opposed it.
People in the electorate of Lyons, which covers most of the "rural" north and south, as well as the state's east coast, were warmer — but still 63 per cent against compared to 35 per cent for and 2 per cent still unsure.
The poll found young people were mostly split, but there was strong support for the stadium among 25–34-year-olds.
Older Tasmanians were most heavily against the stadium, with a massive 70 per cent of 55-69-year-olds disapproving, while an unassailable 74 per cent of over 70s did not like the plan.
Senator Jacqui Lambie addresses today's anti-stadium rally in Hobart. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Author Richard Flanagan speaking at today's anti-stadium rally in Hobart. (ABC News: Greg Szabo)
Senator Jacqui Lambie with the federal independent member for Clark, Andrew Wilkie, at today's anti-stadium rally in Hobart. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
They are particularly interesting numbers considering the two northern electorates — Braddon and Bass — are currently strongholds of the party that is pushing the project — the Liberals.
It is reflective of a government that has, despite now having three years to do so, struggled to convince people of the merits of the stadium and that for the Tasmania Devils to take the field, it must be built, per its licence agreement with the AFL.
The government has seemed content to simply wear any bad stadium press and has failed to launch any meaningful counterattacks against a number of anti-stadium arguments.
That strategy is now being reflected in the polls as questions from the public persist: Why Macquarie Point? Why not York Park? Why so much money?
Hobart's Macquarie Point is the former site of slaughterhouses, a railway hub, an orphans' home, a lumber yard and a livestock sales yard, among others. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Macquarie Point stadium concept art, released in July 2024, shows a cricket match underway. (Supplied: Tasmanian government)
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The government has answered those questions repeatedly, but not in a way that has satisfied the public and the proposal's critics.
The premier, bar a here-and-there social media post, seems absent on the issue.
The minister-in-charge, Eric Abetz, is also working largely in the background.
Amidst significant concern about public spending on the stadium, there's been almost zero spruiking of private investment in the project, save for an easily missed press release trumpeting "strong interest" off the back of an expression of interest process.
And there was an almost surprising lack of pushback against the findings of Nicholas Gruen, whose economic report — commissioned by the Liberal government — found the cost of the stadium could exceed $1.2 billion.
It has allowed anti-stadium sentiment to fester and grow in the community — especially, seemingly, in the north, but also in the south.
On Tuesday, about 250 stadium opponents gathered at Hobart's City Hall to dissect the report, which they believe to be a silver bullet to the heart of the project — and if the government's meek acceptance of the damning paper is an indicator, perhaps they are right.
Speakers at today's anti-stadium meeting in Hobart, (from left) Craig Garland, Richard Flanagan, Kristie Johnston, Vica Bayley, Jacqui Lambie and Andrew Wilkie. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
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Photo shows A concept image of the proposed Hobart stadium at Macquarie Poi nt.
So far, the only prolific person to question any of Dr Gruen's findings — in a public sense at least — is the independent member for Franklin, David O'Byrne.
Perhaps that's because stadium support is at its strongest in Mr O'Byrne's southern electorate.
In fact, more people support the stadium there than oppose it, albeit by a narrow 49 to 48 per cent margin in the positive, with 3 per cent unsure.
A January op-ed by Mr O'Byrne, where he queried some of Dr Gruen's methodology, seems to have played well amongst his base.
But if the government won't defend its project in a meaningful way, why should Tasmanians jump aboard?
If its Sassafras-born and bred leader cannot convince the north, who possibly can?
"Yes AFL team, yes stadium" stickers are often seen on the vehicles of supporters. (ABC News)
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The polling wasn't all bad for the pro-stadium case.
Support for the stadium is actually up, compared to a number of previous, albeit questionable, polls commissioned by Tasmanian Labor, anti-stadium group Our Place and EMRS between October 2022 and May 2023.
And while there is no official poll to confirm the numbers, it is safe to say the fledgling club has broad and majority support across the state.
Already more than 200,000 people have signed on as members — albeit paying just $10 to do so.
It's conducted a slew of events and unveilings in the past 12 months, most of which have been held in the north and north-west, to the point where club officials seem almost desperate to avoid any perceived southern bias.
People at the Stop the Stadium rally in Hobart in May 2023. (ABC News: Loretta Lohberger)
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Still, some northerners remain convinced a stadium will kill AFL content in the north and that a team should be based closer to Burnie than Brighton.
To them, the stadium is emblematic of capital-city favouritism at the expense of footy — and Liberal — heartland.
That these falsehoods have been unable to be torpedoed is an indictment on the government, which enjoys broad support in the very region that is against it on this issue.
Andrew Wilkie at the anti-stadium meeting in Hobart. (ABC News: Greg Szabo)
A crowd gathered near Hobart's parliament in May 2023 to protest the stadium plan. (ABC News: Loretta Lohberger)
A visualisation of the stadium exterior, released in February 2025. (Supplied: Macquarie Point Development Corporation)
Another visualisation of the stadium exterior, released in February 2025. (Supplied: Macquarie Point Development Corporation)
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Photo shows A man looks at two people standing in front of him, both out of focus.
Of course, some opponents are not footy fans at all and are simply worried about the potential budgetary effects the build might have.
Perhaps separate recent polling by EMRS can shed some light.
It found support for the Liberals largely unchanged across the state, even despite the stadium project and the Spirits ferries saga.
It found that if anything, Premier Jeremy Rockliff's popularity was on the up.
Jeremy Rockliff and former AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan sign the deal to establish a Tasmanian AFL team in May 2023. (Facebook: Jeremy Rockliff)
Perhaps this shows the stadium, despite its lack of support, is not producing a lot of electoral drag.
And perhaps internally, this could be why the stadium may not be front of mind for the government as it continues to lead in the polls.
How the government reacts to the most recent polling will be intriguing.
Will it launch a northern offensive? Will beloved north-west coaster Brendon Gale's arrival in the state turn the tide?
Will it continue to drop the ball? Or is the stadium simply unable to be sold?