People celebrated the victory by holding Syrian opposition flags in Lafayette Square outside the White House. (Reuters: Benoit Tessier)
The end of Assad’s rule means many things, not least the long-overdue destruction of the “Kingdom of Silence” – the paranoid security state established by Hafez al-Assad and reinforced by his son Bashar.
For the millions of Syrians displaced, traumatized and tortured under the Assad regime, who have lost loved ones “Behind the Sun” in prisons and executions, this is a huge comfort and hope that they can return to build a free and inclusive country.
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This also includes the Lebanese people who are also suffering from Syrian occupation and interference.
The joy among Syrians contrasts with concerns among some foreign observers about how Syria will emerge from the turmoil.
Predictions are fraught with danger and often pointless, but here are three important factors that will shape Syria’s future.
1. The flexibility, discipline and moderation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
The group leading the rebel offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is listed as a terrorist organisation by Australia, the United States and Britain, is a Sunni Islamist group that traces its jihadist roots to the feared Islamic State.
Long-time observers say the group does not pose the same threat to the West as the Islamic State because it has learned to prioritize domestic politics, governance and service delivery over any kind of battle with a “distant enemy” — namely the United States and its Western allies.
How this brutal couple kept Syria in their grip
The photo shows a man and a woman walking on a blue carpet
Like many dictators before them, the Assads thought they were immune to the forces of history. And like many dictators before them, their dynastic dreams appear to have failed.
Writing about HTS in New Line Magazine, Syrian author Hassan Hassan said: “The success of groups that turn to local activism rather than global terrorism highlights the flaws of ideologies focused on waging devastating global wars.
The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al Jolani, has sought to reassure Syrians and the West that HTS, unlike its jihadist predecessors, emphasizes reconciliation, justice and calls for “restoring the fabric of society”.
Instructing the government not to allow armed elements to enter civilian areas and agreeing to work with the former Syrian prime minister to keep state institutions functioning are part of the guarantees and positive signs for the transition.
HTS has also been issuing new identity cards to former regime officials and police, promising to integrate them into the new civilian government.
One of the factors in the success of the opposition offensive was Jolani’s ability to impose discipline and unity on HTS, absorbing or crushing rival groups and keeping its fighters largely in line.
This former ISIS disciple has gone from extremist to liberator.
A key test now is whether he can deliver on his promise.
2. The avoidance of sectarian violence and power struggles
This is part of the challenge facing HTS and other opposition groups.
Syria is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country consisting of Sunni Muslims, Alawites, Shia Muslims, Christians, Druze, Kurds, Turkmen and smaller ethnic minorities.
Some of the groups that have seized control of specific areas are ethnically based, such as the Kurds in the east and northeast and the Druze in Suwayda.
Pedestrians walk through the empty streets of the Syrian capital as a banner of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hangs from the facade of a building in Damascus. (AP: Omar Sanadiki)
Given that the dominant faction that overthrew Assad is Sunni Islamists, bringing all these groups together in a tolerant and inclusive society and convincing them to surrender to new government institutions may be a challenge.
The fact that ordinary people in many parts of Syria have risen up to help overthrow the regime is heartening and suggests they believe the rebels are far better off than continuing to rule under Assad.
However, many in Syria’s ethnic minorities are concerned about what the new rulers will bring.
Ensuring their safety is a key task for the new Syria, along with establishing a fair and transparent process to document the regime’s crimes and prosecute the perpetrators.
Holding victims accountable while reconciling a tormented nation is a difficult and arduous task, but Syria is not the first country to take this step and hopefully it can succeed without further bloodshed and division.
3. What Syria’s neighbours and major foreign powers do now
Syria was once called the “heart of the Arab world,” but the Assad regime’s weakness and desperation have left it dependent on Iran, fearful of Israel, and vulnerable to a Turkish military invasion.
The actions of these countries now may help Syria’s stability and reconstruction, or they may hinder Syria’s stability and reconstruction.
How the chaos in Syria will change the Middle East
Photo shows President Bashar al-Assad and President Vladimir Putin shaking hands inside a Kremlin conference room.
Whatever the ultimate outcome of Syria’s chaos, the past week has been one of extraordinary turmoil.
Israel, which played a key role in Assad’s downfall through its relentless bombing of Iranian facilities, militias and commanders in Syria, has pushed deeper into Syrian territory from the occupied Golan Heights and said it was adopting a “temporary defensive posture until a suitable arrangement is found”.
It has also been bombing Syrian government weapons facilities, presumably to prevent them from falling into rebel hands.
Turkey, which arms, funds and trains Syrian opposition groups and whose exact relationship with HTS is unclear, is another major beneficiary of this change and a future power broker.
One of its first priorities is to withdraw or disarm the autonomous Kurdish region in northeastern Syria, which the government considers a major security threat after decades of fighting domestic Kurdish insurgents.
Turkish-backed forces are currently battling Kurdish militias in northern Syria.
The United States has previously supported the Kurds and has troops in eastern Syria, but President-elect Donald Trump has said the U.S should not get involved in the current fighting.
What Iran does next is a big question.
The loss of key allies, supply lines and raw power in Syria is a disaster that has severed its “axis of resistance” and comes on the heels of the decapitation of its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran would have a hard time returning to Syrian politics under a Sunni leader like Jolani, but it might find other ways to influence events.
These are all things to watch, but of course, this moment, and hopefully the future, belongs to the Syrians.
The world has let them down in many ways.
They should now have a chance to restart their beating hearts.