Reducing emissions from the power sector is key to meeting Australia’s climate goals. (ABC News: Andrew Seaborn)
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen recently announced that Australia was “on track” to meet its climate change targets. Shortly after the announcement, new data challenged this optimism.
A reminder of what Australia is aiming for – we have committed to reducing emissions to below 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and to net zero emissions by 2050.
In the past few weeks, the federal government has released four reports on Australia’s greenhouse gas pollution, highlighting how far we are from meeting those targets.
Also pouring cold water on Mr Bowen was Matt Keen, chairman of the government’s independent Climate Change Authority, who said: “Emissions need to fall more rapidly to meet Australia’s 2030 target.”
He added that greater ambition was needed to meet the 2050 net zero target.
Now that we have all the data, what does it actually show?
How fast is Australia progressing? What is really driving this change? And what is holding it back?
The following six charts illustrate this situation.
Overall emissions cuts have more or less stalled since the pandemic
The government has been reporting fairly consistently on our emissions reductions since 2005.
But the cuts appear set to stop around 2020.
As Mr Keen points out, to meet the 2030 target, emissions would need to fall by 500% of the 2023-2024 rate.
Australia has done very little to reduce emissions from industry
The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas is responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere.
But what about the steady decline in the graph above? It’s not due to reduced burning of fossil fuels.
Australia has actually done relatively little in this regard since 2005. In fact, the latest data shows industrial emissions are roughly at the same level as then.
So far, the only really big cuts have been in the land sector – cutting down fewer trees and planting more. (In carbon reporting jargon, this is called land use, or more formally land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)).
All other emissions combined are now almost at the same level as in 2005.
If land use emissions are excluded, here are the emissions for each sector. Electricity emissions (the largest source of emissions in the economy) have fallen significantly as renewable energy has replaced fossil fuel use.
The transportation industry also began to decline. However, growth in other industries offset the decline.
The biggest cuts in emissions are unreliable
As you can see above, the land use sector (or “LULUCF”) plays an important role in reducing emissions in Australia.
These numbers are not reliable. The government’s view on these emissions changes every year.
Below is a comparison of how government estimates of land sector emissions have changed over time. Every year, the figures are revised downwards so the sector targets get smaller and the government can declare progress.
That’s very convenient for the government – but it and its independent Climate Change Authority say there’s nothing fishy about it and it simply reflects advances in the science behind the estimates.
Electricity cuts are the key — but the government simply assumes they’ll happen
Projections show that reducing emissions from electricity between now and 2030 will be a major part of our efforts to achieve our 2030 goals.
To achieve this goal, the government needs to develop policies to promote the transition to renewable energy to reach 82% by 2030.
But in another document released by the government detailing its forecasting methodology, there is an important footnote. It says:
“The forecast assumes the Australian government is able to achieve its target of 82 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2030.”
So, far from being a meaningful prediction of how the electricity system will reduce emissions, emissions reductions are just an assumption – and the same is true for national renewable energy targets.
But this is far from a done deal.
The federal government has pledged to cover investments in renewable energy generators, but this can only happen if large-scale transmission projects are built (despite opposition from some communities) and the workforce to build the new infrastructure is trained and ready.
People have great doubts about the occurrence of these two events.
Even the chairman of the government’s Climate Change Authority pointedly noted the need for “further government effort to overcome barriers and ensure Australia is on track to meet its 82 per cent renewable energy target”.
If this fails, the 2030 target also looks likely to be unattainable.
2050 target still just a hope
So what does it look like to achieve net zero emissions by 2050?
But under existing policy, things aren’t looking good.
Current projections only extend to 2040, but by then the trajectory is nowhere near the pace needed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The Climate Change Authority released a report on the issue earlier this year that was blunt: “If Australia is to meet its targets, it will need to scale up efforts, increase investment and coordination across all sectors, and overcome a number of barriers.”
In other words, we need to urgently take more action to achieve the 2050 target.
It looks like renewable energy build-up policies will fade away around 2030. And as we have seen, emissions from the land sector are no longer helpful.
Here is the chart released by the government, combined with the 2050 target – the gap is huge.
Looking at all the charts above we can clearly see that – most of the cuts so far have been in the land sector, now they are starting to make cuts in the power sector but whether it will progress as needed remains to be seen.
The minister for climate change and energy did not respond to specific questions, but a spokesman said: “The department’s projections meet international reporting requirements and show how Australia is on track to meet its targets.
“Forecasts show that by 2030 Australia’s emissions will be 42.6 per cent below 2005 levels and exceed the statutory 10-year emissions budget by 152 million tonnes,” she said.
Regardless, one thing is certain: to achieve net zero emissions, all sectors need to do more. But so far, there are no policies in place to make this happen.